Особливості використання технічного аналізу у прогнозуванні цінової кон’юнктури на організованих ринках
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Дата
2025
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Анотація
У статті висвітлено теоретичні засади технічного аналізу та особливості його використання науковцями та біржовими практиками для оцінки поточного стану і прогнозування біржової кон’юнктури на організованих товарних і фінансових ринках. Наведено історичні етапи еволюції технічного аналізу на міжнародних організованих ринках. Відзначено, що в основу методики проведення технічного аналізу закладено три основні принципи: «організований ринок враховує все»; «рух біржових цін відбувається за визначеними тенденціями»; «історія біржових цін повторюється». Наведено два методи технічного аналізу біржових показників: графічний аналіз та математичний аналіз. Систематизовано основні вимоги та складові методики проведення технічного аналізу на організованих ринках. Відзначено, що основним напрямом розвитку технічного аналізу є використання можливостей штучного інтелекту для моделювання і прогнозування цінових ситуацій на організованих ринках.
The article highlights the theoretical foundations of technical analysis and the features of its use by scientists and derivatives market practitioners to assess the current state and forecast the derivatives market situation on organized commodity and financial markets. The economic essence of technical analysis is presented, which includes a set of graphical, mathematical, statistical methods combined with the psychology of human behavior and is used to predict price dynamics in commodity and financial markets. The historical stages of the evolution of technical analysis on international organized markets are presented. The stages of which include the use of technical analysis: in the early stages of the formation of stock trading; during the period of laying the foundations of the "Dow Theory"; during the development of the "Elliott Wave Theory"; mathematical indicators; АІ in the generation of new approaches to the use of technical indicators. It is noted that the basis of the technical analysis methodology is three main principles: “the organized market takes everything into account”; “the movement of stock prices occurs according to certain trends”; “the history of stock prices repeats itself”. Two methods of technical analysis of stock mar- ket indicators are presented: graphical analysis and mathematical analysis. Among the most well- known and widely used technical indicators are: Moving Averages; Stochastic; Relative Strength Index (RSI); Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). The main requirements and components of the methodology for conducting technical analysis on organized markets are systematized. It is noted that the main direction of development of technical analysis is the use of АІ capabilities for forecasting price situations on organized markets. It has been established that in the era of Internet technologies, the use of technical analysis has become accessible to all participants, especially with the advent of online trading exchange platforms and embedded software. To create price charts, it is now enough to log into the exchange platform and use the available technical analysis tools to forecast derivatives prices.
The article highlights the theoretical foundations of technical analysis and the features of its use by scientists and derivatives market practitioners to assess the current state and forecast the derivatives market situation on organized commodity and financial markets. The economic essence of technical analysis is presented, which includes a set of graphical, mathematical, statistical methods combined with the psychology of human behavior and is used to predict price dynamics in commodity and financial markets. The historical stages of the evolution of technical analysis on international organized markets are presented. The stages of which include the use of technical analysis: in the early stages of the formation of stock trading; during the period of laying the foundations of the "Dow Theory"; during the development of the "Elliott Wave Theory"; mathematical indicators; АІ in the generation of new approaches to the use of technical indicators. It is noted that the basis of the technical analysis methodology is three main principles: “the organized market takes everything into account”; “the movement of stock prices occurs according to certain trends”; “the history of stock prices repeats itself”. Two methods of technical analysis of stock mar- ket indicators are presented: graphical analysis and mathematical analysis. Among the most well- known and widely used technical indicators are: Moving Averages; Stochastic; Relative Strength Index (RSI); Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). The main requirements and components of the methodology for conducting technical analysis on organized markets are systematized. It is noted that the main direction of development of technical analysis is the use of АІ capabilities for forecasting price situations on organized markets. It has been established that in the era of Internet technologies, the use of technical analysis has become accessible to all participants, especially with the advent of online trading exchange platforms and embedded software. To create price charts, it is now enough to log into the exchange platform and use the available technical analysis tools to forecast derivatives prices.
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Ключові слова
технічний аналіз, організовані ринки, цінова кон’юнктура, біржова ціна, графічний аналіз, індикатори, technical analysis, organized markets, price situation, stock price, graphic analysis, indicators
Бібліографічний опис
Масло А. Особливості використання технічного аналізу у прогнозуванні цінової кон’юнктури на організованих ринках [Текст] / А. Масло // Цифрова економіка та економічна безпека : науково-практичний журнал / Причорноморський науково-дослідний інститут економіки та інновацій, Сумський державний педагогічний університет імені А. С. Макаренка ; [гол. ред. О. Ю. Кудріна, редкол.: В. В. Божкова, В. І. Борщ, Н. М. Вдовенко та ін.]. – 2025. – № 1 (16). – С. 362–367. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/dees.16-55