Методологічні засади оцінювання ефективності управління фінансовою безпекою держави
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Дата
2025
Автори
Назва журналу
Номер ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Видавничий дім «Гельветика»
Анотація
Стаття присвячена методологічним засадам оцінювання ефективності управління фінансовою безпекою держави. Актуальність зумовлена ускладненням фінансових процесів, посиленням зовнішніх загроз та обмеженістю традиційних підходів, що не відображають реалій гібридних війн і глобальних криз. Запропонований підхід ґрунтується на принципах критичного реалізму та поєднує системний аналіз, ретродукцію, кількісні й якісні методи. Алгоритм дослідження охоплює постановку завдань, ідентифікацію шоків, профілювання чинників безпеки, добір і нормалізацію індикаторів, каузальний та динамічний аналіз, верифікацію моделей, інтерпретацію результатів і сценарне прогнозування. Методика дозволяє виявляти короткострокові ризики та довгострокові дисбаланси, формувати карти ризиків і KPI. Практична цінність полягає у формуванні універсального інструменту для органів влади, що забезпечує спроможність адаптації макрофінансових політик та зберегти фінансовий суверенітет.
The paper addresses the methodological foundations of assessing the effectiveness of financial security management of the state. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing complexity of financial processes, the intensification of external threats, and the insufficiency of traditional assessment approaches that fail to reflect the realities of hybrid warfare, pandemic crises, and global instability. The proposed approach is based on the principles of critical realism and integrates systemic analysis, retroduction, and a balanced use of quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods. The research algorithm includes several consecutive stages: formulation of objectives and identification of shocks; profiling of determinants of financial security across key values such as monetary sovereignty, fiscal solvency, and international liquidity; selection and normalization of indicators; causality and dynamic analysis; model verification and validation; interpretation and triangulation; and development of scenario-based forecasts. This design ensures detection of both short-term stress factors and long-term cyclical imbalances. The results are presented in a comprehensive methodology that enables transition from diagnosis of immediate threats to understanding structural vulnerabilities and producing foresight scenarios. It includes constructing risk maps, identifying key performance indicators, and assessing the efficiency of management measures. The approach allows for flexible use of econometric modeling in combination with expert interpretation, which enhances the explanatory power of results and increases the ability to prevent systemic crises. The practical value of the paper lies in offering a universal framework for policymakers and regulators. It ensures a balance between national specificity and international comparability, strengthens the capacity of state institutions to adapt financial policy to shocks, and provides a scientific basis for improving strategic management of financial security. This contributes to preserving financial sovereignty, mitigating external risks, and ensuring sustainable development in conditions of uncertainty.
The paper addresses the methodological foundations of assessing the effectiveness of financial security management of the state. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing complexity of financial processes, the intensification of external threats, and the insufficiency of traditional assessment approaches that fail to reflect the realities of hybrid warfare, pandemic crises, and global instability. The proposed approach is based on the principles of critical realism and integrates systemic analysis, retroduction, and a balanced use of quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods. The research algorithm includes several consecutive stages: formulation of objectives and identification of shocks; profiling of determinants of financial security across key values such as monetary sovereignty, fiscal solvency, and international liquidity; selection and normalization of indicators; causality and dynamic analysis; model verification and validation; interpretation and triangulation; and development of scenario-based forecasts. This design ensures detection of both short-term stress factors and long-term cyclical imbalances. The results are presented in a comprehensive methodology that enables transition from diagnosis of immediate threats to understanding structural vulnerabilities and producing foresight scenarios. It includes constructing risk maps, identifying key performance indicators, and assessing the efficiency of management measures. The approach allows for flexible use of econometric modeling in combination with expert interpretation, which enhances the explanatory power of results and increases the ability to prevent systemic crises. The practical value of the paper lies in offering a universal framework for policymakers and regulators. It ensures a balance between national specificity and international comparability, strengthens the capacity of state institutions to adapt financial policy to shocks, and provides a scientific basis for improving strategic management of financial security. This contributes to preserving financial sovereignty, mitigating external risks, and ensuring sustainable development in conditions of uncertainty.
The paper addresses the methodological foundations of assessing the effectiveness of financial security management of the state. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing complexity of financial processes, the intensification of external threats, and the insufficiency of traditional assessment approaches that fail to reflect the realities of hybrid warfare, pandemic crises, and global instability. The proposed approach is based on the principles of critical realism and integrates systemic analysis, retroduction, and a balanced use of quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods. The research algorithm includes several consecutive stages: formulation of objectives and identification of shocks; profiling of determinants of financial security across key values such as monetary sovereignty, fiscal solvency, and international liquidity; selection and normalization of indicators; causality and dynamic analysis; model verification and validation; interpretation and triangulation; and development of scenario-based forecasts. This design ensures detection of both short-term stress factors and long-term cyclical imbalances. The results are presented in a comprehensive methodology that enables transition from diagnosis of immediate threats to understanding structural vulnerabilities and producing foresight scenarios. It includes constructing risk maps, identifying key performance indicators, and assessing the efficiency of management measures. The approach allows for flexible use of econometric modeling in combination with expert interpretation, which enhances the explanatory power of results and increases the ability to prevent systemic crises. The practical value of the paper lies in offering a universal framework for policymakers and regulators. It ensures a balance between national specificity and international comparability, strengthens the capacity of state institutions to adapt financial policy to shocks, and provides a scientific basis for improving strategic management of financial security. This contributes to preserving financial sovereignty, mitigating external risks, and ensuring sustainable development in conditions of uncertainty.
Опис
Ключові слова
фінансова безпека, оцінювання ефективності, критичний реалізм, індекс фінансового стресу, макрофінансова політика, macrofinancial policy, financial security, performance evaluation, critical realism, Financial Stress Index
Бібліографічний опис
Шелудько, С. Методологічні засади оцінювання ефективності управління фінансовою безпекою держави [Текст] / С. Шелудько // Цифрова економіка та економічна безпека : науково-практичний журнал / Причорноморський науково-дослідний інститут економіки та інновацій, Сумський державний педагогічний університет імені А. С. Макаренка ; [редкол.: О. Ю. Кудріна (гол. ред.), В. В. Божкова, В. І. Борщ, Н. М. Вдовенко та ін.]. – 2025. – № 4 (19). – С. 298–303. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/dees.19-44